Grain and oil crops market, November, 12-16

Grain crops

Last week volumes of supply of agricultural products went up as a result of which prices of wheat and rye dropped in average by 5 UAH/MT and increase of prices of feed grain reached 15-20 UAH/MT. Now it is more profitable to sell food grain a bit cheaper and to keep feed grain for selling it later. Probably this is the main reason of price decrease of food grain.
It is obvious that farmers will need rather big amount money for a long time in order to reimburse credits. Most likely active selling of agricultural products will last till the middle of December.
Market of maize continues to decrease which is connected with limited demand for maize from trading companies. In such conditions everything depends upon owners of grain, which may persist, to decrease prices or wait for 1.5-2 months until surplus of maize in the market drops.
Ukrainian maize will probably become cheaper to compete with Hungarian grain. Capacity of Belarus market is limited and buyers from Baltic countries purchase limited volumes; demand from Russia is indistinguishable and for export on condition FOB prices and quality of grain must be quite different.

Oil-bearing crops

Last week prices in the market of oil-bearing crops continue to go up. As before increase of domestic prices of sunflower seed and sunflower-seed oil went on together with increase of world prices for sunflower-seed oil. Difference between price of sunflower-seed oil and other vegetable oils continued to increase and this is a good stimulus for substitution of sunflower-seed oil by alternatives.
Due to this difference it is possible to expect slowing down of tempo of price rise. One of influential factors in this respect is that prices of sunflower-seed oil almost reached absolute high level.
However possibilities for price increase of sunflower-seed oil in the domestic market still remain. This week domestic prices of sunflower-seed oil may go up to 3,500 UAH/MT, EXW. If price of sunflower-seed oil as 3,500 UAH/MT, EXW, is taken as a milestone then purchase prices of sunflower seed of most big buyers might reach 1,450 UAH/MT on CPT condition.
Many processing companies hope for that increase of prices of sunflower seed will enable increase of prices not only of sunflower-seed oil but of sunflower oilcake too. Thus, producers of oilcake propose it for selling at the price of 108 USD/MT on condition DAF.